Independent and critics’ circle awards ceremonies have been kicking off across Hollywood throughout November, and now we’re less than two weeks from the release of the nominations of the season’s first big show: The 74th Golden Globes. So, here are my 2017 Golden Globes nominations predictions (the main movie categories).
(We’re still very early in awards season, so many of these predictions are going off hype, buzz and word of mouth around particular films, actors and directors. I haven’t seen a lot of the films yet, but by the time we get to the Oscar Predictions, I’ll have seen them all!)
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Moonlight, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, Manchester By The Sea
Sitting pretty with a Metascore of 99, and rave reviews from across the world, Moonlight looks to be this season’s biggest drama. Innovatively directed and with an exhilarating and heart-breaking script, this film should be able to fight off strong competition in the Best Drama category without too much trouble.
However, don’t be surprised to see Arrival, dubbed the new Inception by many and a favourite of cinemagoers, push it all the way to the finish, particularly with the HFPA’s inclinations to go for more popular movies. With countless other strong dramas building their campaigns this season, the remaining three spots could realistically go to any of them, but I think Hacksaw Ridge, celebrating a pacifist agenda and the return of Mel Gibson, Fences’ hard-hitting drama, and Manchester By The Sea’s smaller focused story will fill up the rest of the category. (Expect it to be close though!)
(UPDATED: Nominees are Moonlight, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell Or High Water, Manchester By The Sea, Lion. 3/5 correct)
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, Moana, The Lobster, Zootopia
In pretty stark contrast to the exceptionally competitive drama category, Best Musical/Comedy looks like a foregone conclusion. It would be a real shock to see anything else than Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (heavily tipped for the Best Picture Oscar and the first critically-acclaimed musical in years) take the prize, and deservedly so.
Florence Foster Jenkins, starring Meryl Streep and Hugh Grant, should also be a solid nominee in this category, as it has charmed critics and audiences across the world, whilst we might even be getting two Disney animations in the form of Moana and Zootopia, both of which received huge acclaim and massive box office takings upon release.
From there on, I’d personally like to see Yorgos Lanthimos’ wonderfully bizarre comedy-drama The Lobster get a nomination, simply to give it the exposure it deserves, although given recent shock nominations including Trainwreck, Spy and Annie, there’s every chance we could be seeing the likes of even Deadpool get a tip.
(UPDATED: Nominees are 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street. 2/5 correct)
Damien Chazelle – La La Land, Barry Jenkins – Moonlight, Denis Villeneuve – Arrival, Martin Scorsese – Silence, Denzel Washington – Fences
Putting the two genres into one category now, it still looks like La La Land will come out on top. Little known back in 2014 when his masterpiece Whiplash released, Damien Chazelle wasn’t ever likely to take a shock Best Director award, but with more notoriety, and a clearly unique vision for his new film, there’s a very good chance he could win.
That being said, Moonlight’s extreme critical acclaim, much of which is as a result of director Barry Jenkins’ brutally hard-hitting style, means that Chazelle shouldn’t rest easy going up for the award. Gaining momentum as a massive underdog, Jenkins is a pretty good bet for the prize, but it’s by no means certain.
Alongside those two, there’s yet another plethora of masterpieces to choose from. Denis Villeneuve’s exceptional take on a complex sci-fi drama in Arrival has earned him plaudits for the fifth film in a row, whilst Denzel Washington is also likely to take a nomination for his first directorial effort in almost a decade. Martin Scorsese’s legendary status should also earn him a nod, although Silence’s late release is likely to hurt him at the Globes due to a lack of word-of-mouth and momentum.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Damien Chazelle, Mel Gibson, Tom Ford, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan. 2/5 correct)
Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
Denzel Washington – Fences, Tom Hanks – Sully, Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge, Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea, Michael Keaton – The Founder
A range of options here for Best Actor – Drama. The favourite at the moment and my prediction is Denzel Washington for his performance in Fences. He looks to be driving a strong emotional power in the film, and given that he’s not been around the awards circuit for a few years, he’ll likely have a lot of support for the win.
Despite his strength, however, the likes of Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge, Casey Affleck in Manchester By The Sea, Tom Hanks in Sully, and even Michael Keaton in the seemingly quiet The Founder could all win, and have a good chance for a nomination. It’s by no means the highest-quality bracket we’ve ever seen, but these five, along with many others, do deserve a chance for the award.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Casey Affleck, Joel Edgerton, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, Denzel Washington. 3/5 correct)
Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama
Natalie Portman – Jackie, Amy Adams – Arrival, Emily Blunt – The Girl On The Train, Annette Bening – 20th Century Women, Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
In a similar pattern to the last two years, Best Actress appears to be a fiercely more exciting and high-quality race. With Emma Stone out of the picture in the Drama category, the Golden Globes’ winner is likely to be Natalie Portman, for her apparently spellbinding performance as Jackie Kennedy in Jackie. Whilst the film itself hasn’t received glowing reviews, her performance has been almost universally stunning, and should be a good bet to take the award here.
But for yet another year, don’t think that this category is all wrapped up. Whilst Portman is the frontrunner, Amy Adams’ stunning and unorthodox turn in Arrival is likely to get a lot of attention this season, whilst Annette Bening’s performance in 20th Century Women is a strong favourite to make the category as close as possible. Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane, Emily Blunt in The Girl On The Train, and many more should make Best Actress the one to watch once again this year.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, Isabelle Huppert, Ruth Regga, Natalie Portman. 3/5 correct)
Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Ryan Gosling – La La Land, Colin Farrell – The Lobster, Jonah Hill – War Dogs, George Clooney – Hail, Caesar!, Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
As with every year in awards season, the best performances usually come out of the dramas. Whilst there’s always a good musical/comedic turn every year, we always end up with a rather obscure five for the Musical/Comedy acting categories.
La La Land’s huge awards buzz should help Ryan Gosling to a simple win here, whilst the space for smaller films to impress will hopefully give Colin Farrell a shot for his turn in The Lobster. From there on in, it’s tough to tell who the HFPA will go for. Jonah Hill’s impressively frightening performance in the comedy-drama War Dogs might get him a nod, whilst the lack of love for the Coens’ Hail, Caesar! might give George Clooney, or even co-star Josh Brolin a shout.
And of course, given that the film that seemed to be entirely his idea was the success story of 2016, don’t be surprised to see Ryan Reynolds pick up a nod for Deadpool – which would up the Globes’ reputation and viewing figures single-handedly.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Ryan Gosling, Colin Farrell, Jonah Hill, Hugh Grant, Ryan Reynolds. 4/5 correct)
Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Emma Stone – La La Land, Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins, Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship, Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge Of Seventeen, Auli’i Cravalho – Moana
Maybe less simple than the last category, Best Actress is still looking like a clear-cut win for La La Land’s Emma Stone, who is a joint favourite to take the Oscar for Best Actress in February.
The only possible upset here would come from Meryl Streep, whose turn in Florence Foster Jenkins should easily earn her a customary annual nomination, but genuine praise for the film and her performance will make her a possible winner (albeit a long way back). Alongside the leading pair, we could have Kate Beckinsale for her brilliant turn in the Jane Austen adaptation Love & Friendship, Hailee Steinfeld in The Edge Of Seventeen, and even newcomer Auli’i Cravalho for her voice performance in the adored Moana.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Annette Bening, Lily Collins, Hailee Steinfeld, Emma Stone, Meryl Streep. 3/5 correct)
Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins, Mahershala Ali – Moonlight, Mykelti Williamson – Fences, Dev Patel – Lion, Liam Neeson – Silence
What we’d like to see from the Best Supporting Actor category is a chance for the lesser-known actors to get a jump into the Hollywood scene, but history tells us that unknowns face a very hard time taking prizes off established actors.
So, whilst critical acclaim may be being showered on the likes of Mahershala Ali in Moonlight and Mykelti Williamson in Fences, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to beat Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins. Not taking away anything from Grant’s performance in the film that has charmed many, it’s tough to see him being beaten by anyone else, given the sporadic nature of a lot of the supporting actor nominations.
Alongside, Dev Patel looks to be a hot shot for a Supporting Actor nomination, as it’s unlikely he’ll get into Leading Actor, whilst Liam Neeson or even Adam Driver might have a shot for their turns in Scorsese’s Silence, which is again being hurt by its late release.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Mahershala Ali, Jeff Bridges, Simon Helberg, Dev Patel, Aaron Taylor-Johnson. 2/5 correct)
Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture
Naomie Harris – Moonlight, Viola Davis – Fences, Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea, Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women, Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
And finally, we come to the last prediction, for Best Supporting Actress. Given the film’s huge buzz, Moonlight actress Naomie Harris could have a good chance to win here, helped by specific praise for her exceptional performance.
Meanwhile, the likes of Viola Davis in Fences, Michelle Williams in Manchester By The Sea and Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures should all have the opportunity to take a nomination off the back of their films’ acclaim, whilst Greta Gerwig, who has received individual acclaim in the ensemble 20th Century Women will also give her a good chance.
It’s a tough category to predict behind the big hitters above, but it should definitely be one of the most competitive at this early stage.
(UPDATED: Nominees are Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer, Michelle Williams. 4/5 correct)
The 74th Golden Globes nominations are announced on December 12th at 5am PST (1pm GMT), with the awards ceremony taking place on January 8th, 2017.
Thanks for reading my 2017 Golden Globes nominations predictions, come back after they’ve been announced to see how many I got wrong!
(UPDATED: 26/45 predictions correct. 58% then… Thanks for reading, and I hope I can up my game by the time the Oscars come next month!)